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President Trump's Master Class in NegotiationsTrump's reputation is that of a master negotiator. He is demonstrating how he is just that on the world stage ... He is like a man playing a dozen chess games simultaneously.
I surmise these criticisms are from people who have never negotiated anything. Trump's reputation is that of a master negotiator. He is demonstrating how he is just that on the world stage. Trump is negotiating multiple issues on a worldwide scale. He is like a man playing a dozen chess games simultaneously. First, he had the Liberation Day show with the demonstration board displaying tariffs proposed for imports from all other countries. These proposed tariffs were described as "reciprocity tariffs," but they were not based on the other countries' tariffs. They were determined by a strange calculation based on the imbalance of trade with that country and a 10% minimum "baseline" tariff. The calculation and the presentation made it clear those proposed tariffs were unreasonable and we know it, but they would be imposed if the subject countries did not show up to negotiate new terms for trade. Show up they did. About 75 countries were ready to negotiate by the following week. So tariffs were paused. This let those countries know that their chess games are on a friendly basis, that we are not planning to have a trade war. Trump's message to these countries makes three points:
The 90 days can be extended as needed but it is urgent we establish clarity so the stock, bond, and capital markets do not go out of whack. Reportedly, the number of countries who wish to negotiate new trade relationships is now over a hundred. The so-called globalization system of trade and various free-trade agreements turned out to be a sham. This writer was surprised to learn that with a North American supposedly-free-trade agreement in place, Canada charges 200% tariffs on US dairy products. Other tariffs and restrictive rules are in place as well, by both Canada and Mexico – to say nothing of Mexico and Canada not cooperating much on closing the borders between us to unlawful immigration. Trump's shock therapy made it clear to trading partners that the US is serious about establishing new terms for trade. Trump is accused of abandoning the 80-year-old "rules-based order" the US created and leading and starting a trade war. Not true.
Many economists are criticizing the idea of imposing tariffs. These objections do not consider the tariffs already being imposed by many countries on imports from the US. They cite the high blanket tariffs of the 1930s as causing, or at least exacerbating, the Great Depression. Those were blanket tariffs and not the results of negotiations with each country as contemplated in the new proposals. The new proposed tariffs can be avoided by reducing the tariffs charged on US imports to a specific country and also by manufacturing products in the US. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Will the EU negotiate on behalf of all its 27 members? Ursula already announced an EU "zero-zero" tariff offer on industrial products. Maybe they can make it work, but Brussels bureaucrats are not known for expeditious results. This writer finds it difficult to believe Georgia will accept Ursula negotiating the terms of Italian exports to the US Likewise, as Germany re-arms, will it accept EU and Euro-block regulation and constraints on its trade terms and financing? Discussions and negotiations are also proceeding with Russia, Iran, and China; these chess games are not so friendly. Trump hoped he could get Putin to the table to negotiate a ceasefire for the war in Ukraine and a new working commercial relationship. So far, Putin has not showed up for that. Negotiations with Iran are problematic. Further action against the Houthis may be necessary and military action against Iranian oil and nuclear facilities may be needed to neutralize Iran as a threat. Trump imposed extreme high tariffs on Chinese imports and further prohibited Chinese activities. China will retaliate. It has already imposed an embargo on exports of rare earths and is prohibiting import of many American products. The purchase of 43 ports, including the two ports at each end of the Panama Canal by Blackrock, was a highly effective move in an increasingly confrontational chess game with China. Rumor has it Xi was furious over this. The US can expect China to take other aggressive economic actions. The US and China are entering a period of economic warfare. Economic warfare is better than actual warfare, but it has major repercussions. China is a large holder of US Treasury bonds. The US should expect and make plans to counter potential Chinese manipulation of the bond market by dumping bonds into the market to collapse the price and increase US interest rates. Trump is giving a Master Class on negotiating. He is demonstrating he has the necessary mental agility to respond quickly and effectively to responses and actions of other parties and changing circumstances. In addition, he has the nimble mentality to maintain several different negotiations concurrently – chaotic as that may be. Subscribe for free to Breaking Christian News here
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