Breaking Down Iowa's Results: What it Means to the Candidates and Voters

Bob Eschliman : Feb 2, 2016
Charisma News

Monday's results clearly demonstrated the traditional methods of polling are no longer effective. The question now is whether or not there is an effective way to capture that information.

For about three-fourths of Iowa Republicans, Monday night's first-in-the-nation caucus was at least a little bit disappointing. But there's a lot more to the story than just simply who won and the 11 others who didn't. (Photo: Reuters/via Charisma News)

So, let's take a look at what worked, what didn't, who's in, who's out and what it all means as the Republican nominating process advances toward Cleveland.

Retail Politics

Going door-to-door is still the most effective way to win over voters. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio proved that with their very strong showings. Whoever wins the GOP nomination had better remember that when Iowa, a swing state in the last four election cycles, becomes important again in the late summer and early fall.

Get Out the Vote

Except for the much-ballyhooed Trump grass-roots effort—which failed to show up in many key precincts across the state—and Rand Paul's efforts to woo the "younger voters," most of the traditional GOV efforts worked. The end result: nearly 185,000 voters, which is about 51 percent more than the previous record of 122,000 set in 2008.

The top two campaigns, in terms of grass-roots organization, were Cruz Crew and Team Rand. Cruz relied on door-knocking and retail politicking in all 99 counties, and his precinct captains averaged 32.7 voters apiece, compared to 8.4 for Rand's precinct captains. Phone banking was even less effective for the Paul camp, netting a less than 1 percent success rate.

Ted Cruz

As the winner, he clearly reinforced the notion that traditional campaigning in Iowa works. Six months ago, several of his people were telling me they hoped for a top-four finish. That was when there was an expectation that Jeb Bush and Ben Carson would finish much better than they did.

But he's yet to win over the rest of the country. New Hampshire will be difficult for him to win, by any stretch of the imagination, but South Carolina is a must-win if he wants to continue his momentum into Super Tuesday and beyond.

Donald Trump

As the runner-up, this could've been the beginning of the end for the national front-runner. A meltdown, a la Howard Dean in 2008, would've been a deal breaker. Instead, he offered a rare magnanimous speech that sounded hardly like the words of someone who isn't used to coming in second place.

Expect him to spend a lot more time on the ground in New Hampshire over the next week. He can ill afford another poor showing in the Granite State. He held off Rubio in Iowa, but the Florida senator was perhaps the biggest winner Monday night, because he has the most momentum in the establishment lane.

Clearly, the "Shock & Awe" style of campaigning doesn't work in Iowa, where voters have spent decades being able to have face-to-face conversations with their candidates. New Hampshire voters are used to the same kind of attention; it's a smaller state and easier to cover in a week's time—it will be interesting to see if his campaign changes gears.

Marco Rubio

Running a close third to the media-described "top two" provides an enormous amount of momentum going into New Hampshire, which votes in just seven days. Rubio was...

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